Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capability afforded by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
